Monday, February 25, 2008

27 July = 3:05

I have done 4 marathons with a PB being 3:18:54. What makes me think that I can run 3:05 and a 14 min PB?

A recap of the last couple of years…

1) Canberra marathon in Apr 2006 saw me running a near perfect first up marathon with half marathon splits of 1:43 and 1:44 for a 3:27.

2) Cities marathon in July 2006 was a comfortable training run of 3:48 done in even splits (i.e. 1:54 and 1:54)

3) Sydney marathon Sept 2006 was a hot day, my training wasn't as good as Canberra and I went out too fast leading to a fairly evident fade. 3:18:54. (Half splits were 1:36, 1:43)

4) My training had been great for Cities marathon in Jul 2007 and going into the taper I was pretty confident I could run 3:10. Then I got sick and only ran 41k in the final 3 weeks and was not feeling 100% on the day. Result was a 3:21. (Half splits 1:40 & 1:41)

So I have a handful of excuses of why my PB isn't better and therefore why 3:05 isn't such a stretch. Looking at McMillian calculator the equivalent performance for my PB's are:

5k (19:06) = 3:06:12

10k (39:29) = 3:05:18

Half (89:38) = 3:09:02

However, no one I know can run better than what McMillian thinks one should be able to for the marathon, as an equivalent performance of their shorter runs. If there is someone out there, I would like to talk to them.

The question is can I run 3:05 and an average pace of 4:23 in 22 weeks? Time will tell, however I am confident that if I put a good structured program together, I can achieve this. I have plenty of time and it wouldn't be a stretch goal if it wasn't a stretch right?

5 comments:

TA and the Gnome said...

OK, fair enough! It's a realistic stretch :-)

The one issue that you have to reconcile yourself to if you sit in camp 2 is that it may take a long time (years?) to reach that goal, so you have to be prepared now to not give up then.

Somehow, I think you'll stick it.

Gnome

inhisshadow said...

Stretch yes, difficult, I'm not sure, but as you know I have been an advocate of your abilities being better than what your race results may say for a while. Certainly you will need consistant and focused training, I'm looking forward to seeing where this takes you mate

Jen said...

Go for it Chris - you'll never know unless you give it a red hot go!

Will the Frenchman said...

If you train smart and consistently, I'm pretty sure you'll get that 3:05 comfortably!

Ewen said...

Good goal HB. I'd say it's achievable, and in 22 weeks, if you have a good plan and follow it. Get your 10k time down a bit on the way - 39ish.

Run a good race on the day too - minimal fade - 92/93 or 91/94 would work. Go for it!